Weekly Market Commentary
DECEMBER
December 9, 2019
On Friday, the unemployment report flashed its numbers like a hair model in a shampoo commercial. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 266,000 new jobs were created in November. That was better than expected even after deducting the 40,000-plus General Motors employees returning to work, reported CNBC.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
December 2, 2019
Sometime, probably not so long ago, comedian Dave Barry wrote, “Once again, we come to the Holiday Season, a deeply religious time that each of us observes, in his own way, by going to the mall of his choice.”
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
November
November 25, 2019
On Thursday, U.S. investors may find themselves giving thanks for the bull market.
Year-to-date, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite have all gained more than 20 percent with dividends reinvested. The MSCI World Index also is up 20 percent year-to-date.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
November 18, 2019
U.S. stock markets climbed higher for the sixth week straight – the longest rally in U.S. markets in two years – and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 28,000 for the very first time, reported Bloomberg.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
November 11, 2019
According to a source cited by Barron’s, U.S. stock markets are responsible for creating $6 trillion in paper wealth this year. ‘Paper’ wealth is when an asset is estimated to be worth a specific amount. The wealth becomes ‘real’ when the asset is sold.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
November 4, 2019
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates last week, as expected. There were no enthusiastic fans singing the Baby Shark song, but the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision was well received.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
October
October 28, 2019
So far, 2019 has been a tremendous year for U.S. stocks. Through the end of last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had gained more than 20 percent year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was up more than 15 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite had risen more than 24 percent.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
October 21, 2019
A lot was unpacked in a surprising and disorderly fashion. There was some positive news for investors who prioritize fundamentals. Third quarter’s earnings season – the period of time when companies let investors know how they performed during the previous quarter – got off to a strong start.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
October 14, 2019
Financial Times reported the United States agreed to not increase tariffs from 25 percent to 30 percent on $250 billion of Chinese imports next week. (Current tariffs remain in place, and it is possible new tariffs will be imposed on additional Chinese goods – electronics, apparel, and other consumer items – in mid-December.)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
October 7, 2019
From trade wars to impeachment inquiries, investors had a lot to ponder during the third quarter. Toward the end of September, they appeared to become more cautious, although it’s difficult to say which issues weighed most heavily. Here are a few questions they may have been asking:
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
September
September 30, 2019
They say bull markets climb a wall of worry.
Investopedia’s Will Kenton explained the idea like this:
“…a bull market isn’t a peaceful place. When times are good, investors are constantly tense, wondering how long they will keep rolling, fretting about when a seemingly inevitable correction will finally put a stop to the market elation. As a market continues ascending, the decision can become increasingly agonizing whether to take profits in a position or let it ride.”
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
September 23, 2019
Renowned economist Robert Shiller’s new book suggests investors may be able to predict and prepare for economic events by tracking popular stories.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
September 16, 2019
If you enjoy searching for Waldo, the visual nemesis in a red-striped sweater and cap, you may appreciate the quandary of central bankers in many wealthy nations. For almost a decade, they’ve been they’ve been trying to find inflation.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
September 9, 2019
Bill Murray’s character is a crotchety newsman who lives the same day over and over again. After exhausting other options, he chooses self-improvement and eventually escapes the cycle. The movie came to mind last week when the United States and China headed to the negotiating table. Again.
September 3, 2019
About this time last year, Time Magazine reported on anxiety in America. Almost 40 percent of Americans reported being more anxious than they were the previous year. The performance of stock and bond markets this summer may have pushed those numbers higher.
August
August 26, 2019
Heavy rain pummels the surface. Dark clouds drop the sky closer to the water. Gusty winds crash waves ashore. Up top, on land, damage may occur. Underneath, in the deeper water, things often remain pretty much the same.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
August 19, 2019
Last week was the 40th anniversary of BusinessWeek’s infamous cover headline: ‘The Death of Equities: How inflation is destroying the stock market.’ The publication’s current iteration, Bloomberg Businessweek, reported it is still getting grief over the headline and subsequent bull market. In its defense, stocks trended lower for about three years after the magazine hit newsstands.
August 12, 2019
Investors boomeranged from stocks to safe havens and back as trade tensions between the United States and China intensified last week. The Economist reported:
August 5, 2019
The Federal Open Market Committee completed what it called ‘a mid-cycle adjustment’ with a quarter-point rate cut last week. Some investors were unhappy when Fed officials implied there would not be another reduction this year. They’d been hoping for at least one, reported Barron’s.
July
July 29, 2019
Just look at world financial markets. Stock markets and bond markets are telling very different stories.
In the United States, stock markets were blue ribbon winners last week.
July 22, 2019
Did Last Week Mark the Start Of A New Policy For The Federal Reserve?
The U.S. Federal Reserve has a reputation for providing little transparency about the timing and direction of potential rate changes. That reputation was challenged last week.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
July 15, 2019
The Bulls Are Running.
Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index set a new record, closing above 3,000 for the first time. Other major U.S. stock indices also finished at record highs, reported Barron’s.
July 8, 2019
What Will The Federal Reserve Do Now?
There was unexpected economic news last week. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced 224,000 new jobs were added in June, which was more than analysts had anticipated. The gains were offset a bit by reductions in April and May employment estimates. However, overall, the pace of jobs growth during second quarter was fairly consistent with jobs growth during the first quarter, reported Matthew Klein of Barron’s.
June
June 24, 2019
Everything went up – and that’s unusual.
Randall Forsyth of Barron’s explained, “Like our major political parties, the stock and bond markets seem to live in two different worlds these days. The former sits at record levels, suggesting we live in the best of all possible worlds. The latter sees things as bad and only getting worse.”
June 17, 2019
Are We on The Cusp of Change?
The United States is doing quite well. Randall Forsyth of Barron’s reported:
“…the U.S. economy and stock market both seem to be doing better than OK, thank you, as the expansion and bull market celebrate their 10th anniversaries. Unemployment is around the lowest level in a half-century. The worst thing seems to be that inflation continues to run slightly below the Fed’s 2 percent target, a problem that might strike some as similar to being too rich or too thin.”
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
June 10, 2019
Surprise! It Was A Great Week for Markets.
Since the U.S.-China trade conflict resumed in early May, investors have been off balance. The possibility of escalating tariffs on Mexico heightened economic uncertainty. Then, last week’s unemployment report arrived with less than stellar news – just 75,000 jobs were created in May. The number was well below expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised March and April employment numbers downward, too.1, 2, 3
June 3, 2019
Tariff Trouble
Just two weeks ago, the U.S. government lifted tariffs on Mexico and Canada. So, it was a surprise last week when President Trump tweeted the United States would impose an escalating tariff on all goods imported from Mexico until the flow of migrants to the United States’ southern border stops.
May
May 28, 2019
U.S. Stocks Have Had A Great Run.
During the past decade, the profitability of U.S. companies increased rapidly. Strong corporate earnings helped the U.S. stock market outperform markets in other nations by a significant margin. According to Capital Economics, “Since the start of this decade, the average annual return from the MSCI USA index of mid- and large-capitalization U.S. equities, which closely tracks the S&P 500, has been roughly 13 percent. This compares to only 7 percent from the MSCI World ex USA index of comparably-sized equities in 22 other developed economies.” Performance was measured in local currency.
May 20, 2019
Trade war trade-off.
There was some good news on trade, last week. The United States took steps to reduce trade friction with the European Union, Canada, Mexico, and Japan.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
May 13, 2019
Trade Talk Trouble Took A Toll Last Week.
Major U.S. stock indices moved lower when trade talks between the United States and China broke down. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Index all finished the week down between 2 percent and 3 percent, reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s.
May 6, 2019
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Is Off To Its Best Start In 20 Years.
Despite the exceptional performance of U.S. stock markets year-to-date, and data that suggest economic growth remains steady, some analysts and investors have been pecking at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. They’re keen for the Fed to implement a rate cut, which could stimulate economic growth and help push stock markets higher, because inflation is lower than ideal, reported Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir of Reuters.
April
It Wasn’t An ‘Avengers End Game’ Spoiler, But There Was Big News Last Week.
April 29, 2019
Economic growth in the United States was strong during the first quarter. The Bureau Of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in the United States, increased by 3.2 percent.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
And the Answer is . ..
April 22, 2019
A Jeopardy! contestant captured the nation’s attention last week by setting multiple records for the most money earned in a single episode. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has been setting some records, too.
Investors Took an Intermission.
April 15, 2019
The curtain appeared to close on the first act of 2019 last week – and what an impressive act it was. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index delivered some dramatic returns and is less than 1 percent away from a new all-time high.
The First Quarter Of 2019 Brought A Welcome Reversal.
April 8, 2019
Last year, Barron’s published a group of market strategists’ expectations for 2019 performance. The article came out in mid-December, before the steep year-end stock market decline. At that time, all of the strategists agreed: The S&P 500 Index would move higher during 2019.
“Fascinatingly Counter-intuitive…”
April 1, 2019
That’s how Michael Arone, an investment strategist, described the U.S. market environment to Avi Salzman of Barron’s:
“‘Stocks are rallying, but bond yields are reflecting much lower growth.’ Stocks rose during the quarter because the Fed backed away from raising interest rates, and investors grew more confident that the U.S. and China would sign a trade deal, Arone said. The market was also rebounding from a very rough fourth quarter – ‘conditions at the end of the year were wildly oversold,’ he noted.”