Weekly Market Commentary
DECEMBER
December 23, 2025
CLIMBING THE WALL OF WORRY
Markets sent mixed signals last week, with modest gains in large-cap stocks offset by weakness in smaller companies and commodities...
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December 15, 2025
WHY THE BULL MARKET STILL HAS LEGS
Markets were mixed this week as investors digested strong year-to-date gains against near-term consolidation...
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December 8, 2025
RISK APPETITE RETURNS: A STRONG WEEK ACROSS MARKETS
Markets rallied strongly this week, showing broad participation across equities, commodities, and even pockets of fixed income...
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December 1, 2025
SHIFTING SIGNALS IN MARKETS AND MINDS
A change in direction... Stock markets in the United States reversed course last week, with two major indices eking out gains for the month...
NOVEMBER
November 24, 2025
CONFIDENCE, CONCERN, AND CHRISTMAS LIGHTS: A WEEK IN THE MARKETS
Uncertainty abounds. Investors were skittish last week. Share prices jolted higher and lower amid concerns about artificial intelligence (AI)...
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November 17, 2025
FROM SHUTDOWN TO SLOWDOWN: THE CROSSCURRENTS MOVING MARKETS
It was another turbulent week. Investors cheered the end of the shutdown, pondered strong third-quarter earnings, and questioned the artificial...
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November 10, 2025
BALANCING OPTIMISM AND OVERREACH IN THE AI ECONOMY
There were bearish undercurrents in the bullish sea. While there are many reasons to be optimistic about the long-term prospects for U.S. stocks...
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November 3, 2025
MARKETS REACT TO GLOBAL AND ECONOMIC CROSSCURRENTS
Like walking on cobblestones... If you've ever walked down a road paved with cobblestones, you know the uneven surface can be challenging...
OCTOBER
October 27, 2025
NEW RECORDS ON WALL STREET, NEW QUESTIONS FOR THE FED
Stock markets celebrated, but bond markets were cautious. Last week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation for September...
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October 21, 2025
VOLATILITY AND THE STORIES WE TELL
Emotions were running high in financial markets. You may recall the week before last ended with the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index...
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October 16, 2025
NATURE ABHORS A VOID - SO DOES WALL STREET
Filling the data void. Ancient Greek Philosopher Aristotle theorized that nature abhors a void and fills it. Anyone who has ever...
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October 6, 2025
QUARTERLY GAINS, LINGERING QUESTIONS
It was a stellar quarter for investors. The last three months have delivered stock market gains amid signs the economy might not be doing as...
SEPTEMBER
September 29, 2025
ECONOMY SURPRISES TO THE UPSIDE
The economy is all right. Last week, revised economic figures showed the United States economy grew faster from April through June than...
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September 22, 2025
MARKETS RALLY AS FED CUTS RATES AMID UNCERTAINTY
The bulls were running. Last week, investors rejoiced after the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate...
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September 15, 2025
THE ECONOMY OF INFLATION - AND ATTENTION
What are your expectations for inflation?
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September 8, 2025
JOBS SLOWDOWN JOLTS MARKETS
Was the jobs report good news or bad news for the stock market?
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September 2, 2025
INVESTORS NERVOUS, ECONOMISTS HOPEFUL
Will the bull market in stocks continue? There is always a diversity of option about whether stocks are headed higher or lower. Last week, investors were feeling more bearish than bullish...
AUGUST
August 25, 2025
WILL THE FEDS CUT RATES?
Last week, in a much-anticipated speech, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said, “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation…
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August 18, 2025
PERSPECTIVES ON INFLATION: WHAT THE NUMBERS REALLY MEAN FOR RATES AND MARKETS
Perspective has a tremendous influence on how we perceive the world around us.
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August 11, 2025
U.S. COMPANIES HAVE BEEN HITTING IT OUT OF THE PARK!
Earnings season happens four times every year. It’s the period of time when publicly traded companies report how they performed during the previous quarter. So far, in aggregate, the companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have delivered solid results for the second quarter of 2025.
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August 4, 2025
INFLATION STRIKES BACK
U.S. growth slows, jobs miss expectations, and investor sentiment shifts—are the markets losing steam or gearing up for a rate cut?
JULY
July 28, 2025
AI & GDP: A NEW ERA OF ECONOMIC GROWTH?
How fast will an AI-powered economy grow? Global economic growth has not always been robust. Until the 1700s, economic growth averaged about...
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July 21, 2025
INFLATION STRIKES BACK
This is not the inflation you're looking for... In general, everyone who buys goods or services in the United States would prefer to see prices trend lower...
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July 14, 2025
BULLS, BILLS, AND BLIND SPOTS
Are financial markets too complacent? In Aesop's fable, The Boy Who Cried Wolf, a young shepherd repeatedly raises a false alarm...
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July 7, 2025
RIDING THE ECONOMIC ROLLER COASTER: Q2 MARKET INSIGHTS
Like riders on a giga coaster, investors experienced fear and exhilaration during the second quarter of 2025...
JUNE
June 30, 2025
FROM REBOUND TO RECORD: MARKETS IN MOTION
Major U.S. stock indexes races to new highs last week. In a remarkable recovery from April's double-digit downturn, the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index raced to a new record high last week...
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June 23, 2025
STEADY GAINS IN A SHAKY WORLD
Investors are taking it all in stride. As Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes last week, stock markets in the United States remained relatively steady...
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June 16, 2025
POSITIVE SIGNALS, SUDDEN SHOCKS: WHAT MOVED MARKETS LAST WEEK
Investors had a lot to think about last week. A wealth of positive company and economic news lifted markets for much of last week. However...
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June 9, 2025
JOBS, JITTERS, AND THE FED'S NEXT STEP
Employment was top of mind for financial markets last week.
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June 2, 2025
OPTIMISM REBOUNDS, BUT SPENDING STAYS GROUNDED
Consumers were feeling cautiously optimistic. When people talk about the United States economy, they're usually referring to gross domestic product...
MAY
May 27, 2025
DEBT, DOWNGRADES, AND THE COST OF BORROWING
Nobody likes to balance the budget. Some pundits said Moody's rating downgrade of U.S. Treasuries was a nothing burger...
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May 19, 2025
TARIFF TRUCE AND TAME INFLATION BOOST MARKETS
Last week, the U.S. stock market showed why it's a good idea to stay invested through bouts of volatility. Major U.S. stick indices notched sizeable gains as investors celebrated a trade truce with China...
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May 12, 2025
TARIFFS, TRADE, AND TENSION: MARKETS TREAD WATER
The winds of uncertainty are blowing, and the waters are choppy. In recent weeks, United States stock markets saw steady gains, recovered from the April downturn as investors set aside uncertainty," reported Connor Smith of Barron's.
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May 5, 2025
STRONG Q1 EARNINGS AMID ECONOMIC CONTRACTION
American companies did well in the first quarter. During earnings season, publicly held companies tell investors how they performed during the previous quarter with a particular focus on earnings, which reflect company profits.
APRIL
April 28, 2025
HOW'S EVERYBODY FEELING?
If you said, "Not great," you're not alone. There is an abundance of negative sentiment today. Many people - from consumers to small business owners, and from asset managers to investors - are feeling less optimistic. Here's the data.
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April 21, 2025
AS THE MARKET TURNS...
When investor preferences shift and money flows from one sector, industry, investment style or geographic region into another, it is called a market rotation.
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April 14, 2025
ALL EYES ON THE BOND MARKET
The scale of the tariffs introduced by the administration shocked investors, sparking a roller coaster of a week for stock markets. Last week, U.S. stocks:
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April 7, 2025
“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs…”
The advice offered by Rudyard Kipling’s poem “If—” resonated last week. A sharp escalation in trade tensions sparked a stock market downturn despite news that the United States economy created far more jobs in March than economists had expected, reported Lucia Mutikani of Reuters.
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MARCH
March 31, 2025
RISK-ON. RISK-OFF
If you read the financial press, you may have seen the terms “risk-on” and “risk-off”. When investing, there is a risk-return spectrum. Stocks typically have higher risk and higher return potential than high-quality bonds. High-quality bonds have lower risk and lower return potential than stocks, although they typically have higher risk and higher return potential than cash.
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March 24, 2025
THE MARKET WHISPERER…
Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left the federal funds rate unchanged, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell soothed markets. He explained that conditions in the labor market were broadly in balance and inflation had eased significantly over the past two years. Overall, the possibility of recession, while rising, remained low.
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March 17, 2025
A CORRECTION AND A BOUNCE.
Last week, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index moved into correction territory. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) was already in a correction, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) was close, reported Paul R. LaMonica of Barron’s.
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March 10, 2025
WHAT DO WEATHER AND INVESTING HAVE IN COMMON?
From 1991 to 2020, the average temperature of the United States was 54.7° Fahrenheit. Of course, that doesn’t mean the temperature in every state on every day was 54.7°F. The weather varied dramatically from place to place and month to month.
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March 3, 2025
IS IT SUPPOSED TO BE DOING THAT?
At the end of last year, economists believed the chance of a recession in 2025 was relatively low. In December, economist Torsten Sløk wrote, “The outlook for the US economy remains strong with no signs of a major slowdown going into 2025.”
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FEBRUARY
February 24, 2025
A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION
Broadly speaking, there are two types of investors: individual investors and institutional investors.
Individual investors buy and sell investments to grow their personal wealth. This group of investors often works with financial advisors as they pursue their financial goals. Individual investors tend to invest smaller amounts of money than institutional investors do.
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February 18, 2025
WHY ARE STOCK MARKETS WARY OF TARIFFS?
In two of the last three weeks, tariff announcements led to late week stock market sell-offs. Stocks quickly recovered lost value, but uncertainty about the administration’s trade policy and the potential impact of that policy on U.S. companies remained. That’s likely to be the case until it becomes clear whether the Trump administration sees tariffs as a negotiating tactic or a means to cover the cost of extending 2017 tax cuts.
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February 10, 2025
OPTIMISM HEADED SOUTH ON FRIDAY
After rising for most of the week, stock markets lost momentum last Friday as economic data raised doubts about further Federal Reserve rate cuts, reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg. Late in the day, President Trump announced new tariffs would be imposed this week, and stocks dropped into negative territory.
February 3, 2025
WAIT! WHAT JUST HAPPENED?
Last week, investors were inundated with market-moving data and news. Stock markets gyrated as investors tried to process everything that was occurring. Here’s some of what happened:
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JANUARY
January 27, 2025
WHAT MOVES FINANCIAL MARKETS? THE SHORT ANSWER IS: LOTS OF THINGS!
Almost one hundred years ago, Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd wrote, “the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion.” Today, the same holds true. Stock prices are influenced by many factors. Here are three examples
January 21, 2025
AS THE MARKETS TURN
Last week, investors breathed a sigh of relief when the latest price data showed core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, moved lower in December.
January 13, 2025
BOND YIELDS ARE RISING—AND THEY HAVE INVESTORS’ ATTENTIONLast year, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the federal funds rate by one percent. (The federal funds rate is the interest rate the Fed charges banks. It influences other interest rates.) This shift in Fed policy made a lot of people happy.
January 6, 2025
HELLO, 2025! As we head into a new year, it can be helpful to look back at the previous year—and 2024 was a doozy. Stocks in the United States delivered a double-double—posting double-digit gains for a second year in a row. That kind of performance is a relative rarity and has only occurred nine times over the last 96 years, according to Tony DeSpirito of BlackRock.
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DECEMBER
December 30, 2024
CONSUMERS WERE MORE OPTIMISTIC. INVESTORS WERE LESS SO
As we neared the end of 2024, U.S. consumers were feeling optimistic. Every month the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers conducts about 600 interviews with American households, asking interviewees about their personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions.
December 23, 2024
Last week, markets were about as happy as a toddler opening a gift they didn’t like.
The first upsetting event followed the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s final policy meeting for 2024. The Fed met expectations by lowering its policy rate one-quarter of a percentage point, as many economists had anticipated. The federal funds rate is now a full percentage point lower than it was at the start of September.
December 16, 2024
HOW HIGH CAN U.S. STOCKS FLY?
The U.S. stock market has delivered exceptional performance over the past few years and remains on track to deliver solid returns in 2024.
December 9, 2024
U.S. STOCKS THRIVE AMID TURMOIL
The performance of the U.S. stock market is striking. Last week, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 closed at a record high for the 57th time this year, reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg. Here are some of the notable factors that sent stocks higher last week:.
December 2, 2024
NOT ONE, BUT TWO!
United States stock markets are serving another cup of cheer this year. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index returned more than more than 24 percent in 2023. This year, it was up 26.5 percent through the end of November.
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NOVEMBER
November 25, 2024
THE POST-ELECTION RALLY RESUMED
Investors shook off concerns about interest rates and inflation, and U.S. stocks climbed higher last week. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index gained every day last week, and the rally wasn’t limited to a few popular stocks: 425 of the companies in the Index finished the week higher, according to Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s.
November 18, 2024
THE UNITED STATES STOCK MARKET CHANGED COURSE
Last week, the strength of the United States economy slowed investors’ roll. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell told business leaders in Dallas, Texas, that the performance of the United States economy has been “remarkably good,” better than any major economy in the world, which gives the Fed “the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”
November 11, 2024
STOCK MARKETS CELEBRATED THE RESULTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. BOND MARKETS WERE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC
Last week, United States stock markets rallied, and the U.S. dollar gained against other currencies, following the presidential election. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s Fear gauge, also moved lower after concerns about a long wait for election results were quelled by a swift result, reported Alexandra Semenova of Bloomberg.
November 4, 2024
ARE WE WITNESSING AN HISTORIC EVENT?
For an airplane or a spacecraft, a soft landing occurs when the vehicle “touches the ground in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage it,” according to The Britannica Dictionary.
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OCTOBER
October 28, 2024
FINANCIAL MARKETS APPEAR TO HAVE PRE-ELECTION JITTERS
The United States election is less than two weeks away. The candidates are neck and neck. The outcome remains uncertain. And expectations for volatility have been rising, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finishing last week at 20.33.
October 21, 2024
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
The bull market in stocks charged past its two-year birthday on October 12. “This unique bull market is still young relative to history and, for now, supported by relatively healthy breadth and broadening participation,” wrote Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon of Schwab.
October 14, 2024
THERE WAS A LOT TO CELEBRATE LAST WEEK!
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed above 5,800 for the first time—and that’s not all. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also notched a record high last week—and all three major U.S. stock indices ended the first full week of October with gains of more than one percent. There was good economic news, too.
October 7, 2024
LIVING THE REALITIES OF RISK AND REWARD
Asset allocation is important because it helps investors manage the risk and rewards of investing. In general, investments have different levels of risk and the potential return (or reward) for taking that level of risk is a higher return. For example, investing in stocks typically has greater risk than investing in quality bonds or cash. In return for taking a higher level of risk (i.e., tolerating the ups and downs of the stock market) investors have the potential to earn higher returns. Quality bonds have less risk that stocks and offer lower return potential, and cash/cash equivalents has the least risk and the lowest return potential.
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SEPTEMBER
September 30, 2024
THE STANDARD & POOR’S (S&P) 500 INDEX HIT A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH LAST WEEK
The S&P 500 has had quite a year. Despite a sharp downturn in August when investor confidence was ruffled by concerns about economic growth, the Index was up about 20 percent, year-to-date, at the end of last week. The gains were widespread with all sectors of the Index participating, according to data from Fidelity
September 23, 2024
RATES MOVED LOWER AND STOCKS MOVED HIGHER
In 2022, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) began raising interest rates as it battled high rates of inflation. That year prices rose 8 percent, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. In 2023, prices increased more slowly (4.1 percent), but still advanced at a pace that was well above the Fed’s target of two percent. Last month, prices rose 2.5 percent annualized. And last week, the Fed decided it is time to change course.
September 16, 2024
THERE WAS A LOT OF GOOD NEWS LAST WEEK!
Inflation continued to trend lower. The Consumer Price Index showed that inflation was 2.5 percent year over year (yoy) in August. That’s lower than economists had expected, and a significant decline from July’s 2.9 percent.
September 9, 2024
INVESTING IN SEPTEMBER CAN BE LIKE BITING INTO A JELLY DOUGHNUT AND FINDING BOILED CABBAGE—FULL OF UNWELCOME SURPRISES
“History suggests September is the worst month of the year in terms of stock-market performance,” reported Isabel Wang of Morningstar. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index “has generated an average monthly decline of 1.2%...dating back to 1928, according to Dow Jones Market Data.”
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September 3, 2024
AFTER GYRATING WILDLY THROUGHOUT THE MONTH, MAJOR U.S. STOCK INDEXES FINISHED AUGUST HIGHER
Despite a lot of uncertainty and some dramatic ups and downs, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index rose 2.3 percent in August, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.8 percent to close at a record high. It was the fourth consecutive month of gains for both indexes, reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.
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AUGUST
August 26, 2024
THE NEAR FUTURE IS MORE PREDICTABLE THAN THE DISTANT FUTURE
Last year, the St. Louis Federal Reserve explored the accuracy of recession forecasts. They found that short-term predictions about whether there would be a recession in the subsequent quarter were fairly accurate. However, projections for economic growth a year ahead were far less accurate. The researchers concluded, “Even though forecasts can help, we must live with significant uncertainty about future economic conditions.”
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August 19, 2024
THE BEST WEEK OF THE YEAR?
After two weeks of slow and jolting market performance, a bounty of positive news calmed investors and lifted stock markets higher last week.
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August 12, 2024
MARKETS WERE GRIPPED BY AUGUST JITTERS
Last week, financial markets were volatile. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose to the highest level in four years before cooling down. “While spikes in the VIX often coincide with deep market sell-offs, they can also be short-lived and precede a rebound for stocks,” reported Jesse Pound of CNBC.
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August 5, 2024
STOCK MARKETS SWELLED AND DROPPED LIKE WAVES AT THE OLYMPIC SURFING COMPETITION IN TAHITI
It is often said that markets hate uncertainty. There was a lot of uncertainty last week, and it showed. “The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index soared 3 [percent] on Wednesday and then retreated almost that much on Thursday, before paring the decline at the close, for its biggest up-to-down rotation since May 2022. The S&P 500 Index sank 1.4 [percent], just one day after rallying 1.6 [percent],” reported Alexandra Semenova, Esha Dey, Carmen Reinicke, and Natalia Kniazhevich of Bloomberg.
JULY
July 29, 2024
AMERICANS MAY BE WITNESSING SOMETHING REMARKABLE
Earlier this year, we had the relatively rare opportunity to view a total solar eclipse – when the moon passes between the sun and the Earth, blocking the sun completely – as it crossed numerous states. Now, we may see the United States’ economy experience a soft landing – when the Federal Reserve raises rates to fight inflation and does not cause a recession.
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July 22, 2024
THE RATE CUT STARS ARE ALIGNING
For the last year, borrowing costs in the United States have remained relatively high as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) waited for economic data to show that inflation was on track to reach the Fed’s two percent target. Now, we may finally be on the cusp of lower rates.
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July 15, 2024
WILL DEFLATION CONTINUE?
In May, Pew Research asked Americans about the biggest problems facing our nation. The top three answers were:
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July 8, 2024
DESPITE SOME VOLATILITY, STOCK MARKETS HAVE BEEN BUOYANT IN 2024
Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI), optimism about inflation, and expectations that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin to lower rates this year have helped global and U.S. stock markets, overall, push higher in 2024. Share prices increased more slowly in the second quarter, though. Here’s what happened:
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July 1, 2024
SOME GOOD NEWS AND SOME VOLATILITY
Last week was a mixed bag as investors weighed positive economic news against concerns that stock prices for some chipmakers may not be sustainable. Here are the highlights:
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JUNE
June 24, 2024
ARE WE AT AN INFLECTION POINT?
The transition to renewable energy has been moving forward and may be reaching an inflection point. In 2023, global renewable energy capacity increased by almost 50 percent, reported the International Energy Agency (IEA). Renewable capacity reached all-time highs in the United States, Europe and Brazil. However, the leader in new capacity is China. In 2023, the country “commissioned as much solar PV [photovoltaic] as the entire world did in 2022,” stated the IEA’s Renewables 2023 report.
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June 17, 2024
INFLATION IS LOWER – AND SO ARE SOME RETAIL PRICES
There was a lot of good news last week about the cost of products and services in the United States.
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June 10, 2024
ANOTHER RECORD HIGH FOR THE STANDARD & POOR’S (S&P) 500 INDEX
Last week, the S&P 500 Index hit its 25th record high for 2024. Investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence helped drive the index to a new high. About 30 percent of the Index is information technology stocks.
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June 3, 2024
OVERALL, MAY WAS A GOOD MONTH FOR INVESTORS
The adage, “Sell in May and go away,” would have been poor advice last month. Major stock indices in the United States finished the month higher. Connor Smith of Barron’s reported:
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MAY
May 28, 2024
PERCEPTION VERSUS REALITY
A recent Harris poll, conducted on behalf of The Guardian newspaper, found that there is some confusion about the state of the American economy and U.S. stock market performance. A significant proportion of the Americans who participated think the economy and the stock market are in rough shape. Here are a few of the misperceptions uncovered by the poll:
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May 20, 2024
READING THE ECONOMIC TEA LEAVES
Tasseography practitioners read tea leaves to forecast the future. Some economic data serve a similar purpose. Policymakers, central bankers, economists, and investors look at leading economic indicators to forecast where the economy may be headed. Classic leading indicators include:
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May 13, 2024
HIGHER RATES ARE DOING WHAT THEY’RE SUPPOSED TO DO
Last week, Federal Reserve officials spoke about keeping the federal funds rate higher until it becomes clear that inflation will reach the Fed’s two percent target rate.
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May 6, 2024
WHAT WILL THE FEDERAL RESERVE DO?
Uncertainty about the direction and timing of Fed rate cuts is causing stock markets in the United States to charge and retreat. U.S. stocks rallied for five consecutive months (anticipating rate cuts early in 2024) before retreating in April after higher-than-anticipated inflation suggested the Fed might delay any rate reductions.
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APRIL
April 29. 2024
THE ECONOMY APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN.
Last week, many investors were focused on economic data. The Personal Consumption report offers information about Americans’ income and spending over the previous month. It includes one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. The March report showed:
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April 22. 2024
INVESTORS HAVE BEEN RECALIBRATING THEIR EXPECTATIONS
There is a lot going on in the world that could affect the value of financial markets – wars, tensions between major powers, a strong dollar, and rising oil prices – just to name a few. Last week, it was Federal Reserve policy. The possibility that the Fed might keep rates higher for longer shook investors, reported Naomi Rovnick of Reuters.
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April 15, 2024
INFLATION AND GEOPOLITICS AND EARNINGS. OH, MY!
It was a rough week for stock markets. “The S&P 500 closed 1.5% lower on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.6%. Every S&P 500 sector closed lower—and just about 40 stocks in the index finished the day with gains,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.
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April 8, 2024
THE BULL CHARGED FROM OCTOBER 2023 THROUGH MARCH 2024. LAST WEEK, IT TOOK A BREATHER
Optimistic may be the best word to describe the first quarter of 2024. From the start of the year, investors were confident that an economic soft landing in the United States was possible. The U.S. stock market reflected investors’ conviction that:
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April 1, 2024
WHAT DO DIETERS HAVE IN COMMON WITH THE FEDERAL RESERVE?
If you’ve ever dieted, you may be familiar with the weight-loss plateau. Many people experience steady progress. The bathroom scale moves lower week by week – until it doesn’t – and that can be discouraging.
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MARCH
March 25, 2024
THE CENTRAL BANKS HAVE SPOKEN
No one expected the United States Federal Reserve to announce a rate change last week – and it didn’t. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the actions of other central banks led to new records being set in stock markets around the world, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s.
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March 18, 2024
HERE’S THE TEA ON STOCK MARKETS AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Last week, a slew of headlines mentioned stock market bubbles and frothy valuations. The implication was that markets might be headed lower because they’ve risen so high. Last Wednesday, Lewis Krauskopf of Reuters reported:
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March 11, 2024
THE WEEK GOT OFF TO A GOOD START
In testimony before House and Senate committees, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell noted that prices had been falling and unemployment rates remained quite low. As a result, he expected the Fed to begin lowering the federal funds rate in 2024.
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March 4, 2024
THE BULL MARKET IS ALIVE AND WELL
“We know what investors are thinking,” reported Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s. “The gains can keep coming, driven by an economy that is neither too hot nor too cold…The economy is growing, but only moderately, and the Federal Reserve can keep thinking about when it can start cutting interest rates…This dynamic is why nobody wants to miss out on the rally—and why they think it can keep going. A recent survey from Investors Intelligence shows the number of bulls outnumbered their bearish counterparts by the widest margin since late 2021.”
FEBRUARY
February 26, 2024
OPTIMISM ABOUNDS!
Enthusiasm for everything related to artificial intelligence (AI) drove a global stock market rally last week. Equity markets in the United States, Europe, and Japan hit all-time highs after a leading chipmaker reported better-than-expected earnings and an extraordinary surge in demand for its artificial intelligence-targeted processors, wrote Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg.
February 20, 2024
DON’T FIGHT THE FED
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States. A longstanding bit of investment wisdom is: Don’t fight the Fed. It means that investors should align their strategies with the Fed’s monetary policy. Economic growth is influenced by Fed policy, and stock markets tend to reflect the economy, rising when it grows and falling when it contracts. As a result, Kent Thune of The Balance reported, when the Fed is:
February 12, 2024
CHINA IS OUT OF FAVOR WITH INVESTORS
For decades, China was among the fastest-growing economies in the world. Its real gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services it produces, grew by about nine percent a year, on average, from 1978 through 2022, according to The World Bank. However, the pace of economic growth in China slowed over the last decade and dropped sharply during the pandemic.
February 5, 2024
WE’VE BEEN HEARING A LOT ABOUT LAYOFFS
Last week, the January 2024 Challenger Report found that employers based in the United States cut more than 82,000 jobs in January. That’s a lot. In December 2023, about 35,000 layoffs were announced. The January job cuts were concentrated in a few industries, and the reasons for the cuts included companies restructuring to lower costs and reorienting toward artificial intelligence.
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JANUARY
January 29, 2024
EVEN BETTER THAN EXPECTED!
The United States economy is not performing the way anyone thought it would. Instead of tipping into a recession last year, it crushed expectations. Gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services produced in the country, expanded 2.5 percent, after inflation, for the year.
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January 22, 2024
ARE YOU FEELING OPTIMISTIC OR PESSIMISTIC?
Consumers are a force to be reckoned with – and we’re all consumers. We buy coats and tweezers, electricity and bread, screens and fishing poles. We download apps and games and educational materials. As consumers, we are vital to the American economy. In fact, consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy when it’s measured using gross domestic product or GDP.
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January 16, 2024
IS INFLATION RETREATING?
Last week, we received a lot of information about inflation. Some seemed to support the idea that inflation was sticky, meaning it wasn’t moving lower, while other data suggested inflation was in retreat. Here’s what we learned:
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January 8, 2024
AND WE’RE OFF…TO A SLOW START
Last week, investors appeared to suffer from a New Year’s hangover. The culprit was too much optimism.
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January 2, 2024
2023 WAS A BIG YEAR FOR U.S. STOCKS
The story of 2023 has its roots in 2022, when the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index lost almost 19.5 percent amid rising inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. As 2022 came to a close, many on Wall Street predicted further pain in the new year. Economists forecasted a 70 percent chance of recession in 2023, and consumer and investor confidence were both low.
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December
December 26, 2023
IF ALL YOU WANTED FOR CHRISTMAS WAS TWO PERCENT INFLATION, YOU’RE IN LUCK!
Barring unforeseen events, it appears the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) is on the cusp of accomplishing a feat many thought impossible – reducing inflation without causing a recession.
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December 18, 2023
HAVE RATES PEAKED?
Last week, at its final policy meeting for 2023, the United States Federal Reserve indicated that rates may have peaked. After the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said:
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December 11, 2023
STILL EXCEEDING EXPECTIATIONS
Last week, the United States Treasury market rallied. Yields fell and bond prices rose as some bond market investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve will soon change course. Michael Mackenzie and Rich Miller of Bloomberg explained:
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December 4, 2023
WE’RE CYCLING ALONG
It’s easy to forget that economic activity tends to move in cycles. A full cycle, known as the business cycle, typically includes four stages:
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November
November 27, 2023
IN NOVEMBER, INVESTORS WERE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN CONSUMERS
At the start of November, investors were decidedly bearish. During the week of November 1, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey found that about 50 percent of respondents were pessimistic about the prospects for stocks over the next six months, and about 24 percent were bullish. The current historic averages are 31 percent bearish and 37.5 percent bullish. (The remainder are neutral.)
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November 20, 2023
IS IT DONE? (WE’RE NOT TALKING ABOUT TURKEY)
Last week, investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could be done raising rates – and that it might even begin to lower them. As conviction about the possibility of rate cuts increased, stock and bond markets rallied, reported Koh Gui Qing and Dhara Ranasinghe of Reuters.
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November 13, 2023
WILL THERE BE A YEAR-END RALLY?
Four times a year, during earnings season, publicly traded companies report how well they performed during the previous quarter. The strength of corporate earnings – also known as bottom-line profits – is one of the economic indicators that investors watch closely.
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November 6, 2023
WILL THERE BE A YEAR-END RALLY?
Last week, there was a lot of speculation about whether the United States will see a year-end stock market rally. Some say yes, and some say no.
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October
October 30, 2023
THE MARK TWAIN EFFECT?
Historically, economic theory was based on the idea that financial decisions were grounded in rational thought. In recent years, behavioral economists have recognized that people don’t always behave rationally. In fact, research has found that investors like shortcuts that help simplify decision-making. While rules of thumb can be helpful, it’s important to use common sense. Some investment theories are a bit wacky, such as:
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October 23, 2023
MARKETS WERE RESILIENT
Today, investors have a myriad of worries that are creating tremendous uncertainty. A September Investopedia survey found investors are concerned about how their investments may be affected by:
- Inflation (59 percent),
- The upcoming election (52 percent),
- A possible recession, (51 percent)
- Higher interest rates, (51 percent)
- S.-China tension, (44 percent)
- War in Ukraine (35 percent),
- The United States’ credit rating downgrade (33 percent),
- Climate disasters (20 percent), and other issues.
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October 16, 2023
MARKETS WERE RESILIENT
Last week, investors had a lot to process – geopolitics, inflation, consumer sentiment, the possibility of government shutdown – and markets were volatile. Toward the end of the week, some investors were reassured when earnings season kicked off with reports showing major banks posted stronger-than-expected profits during the third quarter. Here’s a brief look at what happened during the week:
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October 9, 2023
FINANCIAL MARKETS LOST GROUND DURING THE THIRD QUARTER
While year-to-date returns for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index remain above the historic average, which was 10.24 percent, including dividends, from 1973 to 2022, the rally in U.S. stocks stalled during the third quarter of 2023, reported Lewis Krauskopf, Ankika Biswas and Shashwat Chauhan of Reuters.
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October 2, 2023
INFLATION IS SLOWING BUT CONSUMERS AREN’T FEELING IT
In August, for the first time in two years, inflation (excluding volatile food and energy costs) dropped below four percent. Last week, one of the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s favored inflation measures – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – indicated that prices rose 3.9 percent, year-over-year, in August 2023. That’s an improvement from January, when prices rose by 4.9 percent, year-over-year, but it remains above the Fed’s target of 2 percent.
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September
September 25, 2023
HOW HIGH WILL THEY GO?
Just as the market anticipated, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose not to raise interest rates last week. However, Fed officials made it clear another rate increase might be necessary before the end of 2023 as continued economic strength, higher energy prices, robust consumer spending, and rising wages in a strong labor market have kept upward pressure on inflation.
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September 18, 2023
ADDING NEW INGREDIENTS TO THE ECONOMIC BLENDER.
The performance of United States economy in 2023 has been as unexpected as a lentil-avocado-cinnamon smoothie – a tasty surprise. Last week, economic data suggested the Federal Reserve may need to do more to slow the economy. The consumer price index showed inflation edging higher, wholesale inflation was higher than expected (largely due to higher energy prices), and retail sales were healthy.
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September 11, 2023
ALL THE WORK, WORK, WORK
2023 has been a remarkable year so far. It has, “confounded economists, humbled forecasters, and rewarded investors. Despite a rapid rise in interest rates, the U.S. economy continues to grow. Inflation has fallen – if not quite to desired levels – and stocks have entered a bull market, with the S&P 500 gaining 17% year to date and the Nasdaq Composite up more than 30%,” reported Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s.
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August
August 28, 2023
BECALMED
The Chinese government’s zero-COVID policy took the wind from the sails of its economy. When the government finally ended the policy earlier this year, many economists anticipated that pent-up consumer demand would refill China’s economic sails, lifting the global economy, reported Malcolm Scott of Bloomberg. Instead, China’s economy is in an economic doldrum, recovering far more slowly than anyone anticipated. As a result, economists have steadily lowered 2023 growth forecasts for the country, reported Yahoo Finance and Diane King Hall.
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August 21, 2023
HIGHER BOND YIELDS MAY BE GOOD FOR INCOME INVESTORS – AND NOT SO GOOD FOR STOCK MARKETS
After more than a decade of near-zero interest rates, the “free money” era – a time when people and businesses could borrow money and repay it with very low (or no) interest – may be over.
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August 14, 2023
CONSUMER SENTIMENT IS A LAGGING INDICATOR. IT’S ALSO A CONTRARIAN INDICATOR
After rising sharply in June and July, consumer sentiment leveled off this month. The preliminary August reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 71.2. That’s slightly below July’s reading, although it’s up 22.3 percent year-over-year, and up 42 percent from its all-time low of 50 (June 2022). The historic average for the Index is 86.
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August 7, 2023
CENTRAL BANK PALOOZA!
Last week, Fitch Ratings startled markets by lowering the credit rating of United States Treasuries from AAA to AA+. It was the second rating agency to downgrade U.S. Treasuries; Standard & Poor’s cut its rating to AA+ in 2011, reported Benjamin Purvis and Simon Kennedy of Bloomberg.
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July
July 31, 2023
CENTRAL BANK PALOOZA!
While music lovers attended concerts and festivals across the United States, central banks had a lollapalooza of their own. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) led things off last Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday. Here’s what happened:
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July 24, 2023
BETTER THAN EXPECTED.
In January of this year, the Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey collected and shared investors’ expectations for stock markets. Survey participants were generally a gloomy group. Seventy percent believed the United States stock market would move lower in 2023, and most indicated the drop would happen in the latter half of the year, according to Jess Menton and Liz Capo McCormick of Bloomberg. The pair reported:
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July 17, 2023
DISINFLATION WAS IN THE AIR!
To the great relief of the Federal Reserve, the American economy has been experiencing “disinflation,” which is a slowdown in the rate of inflation. For example, last week we learned that:
Inflation fell to a two year low in June. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices rose just 3 percent from June 2022 through June 2023. That was lowest inflation has been in two years, reported Augusta Saraiva of Bloomberg.
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July 10, 2023
MARKETS ARE PLAYING FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) CLUE
Last week, investors parsed the monthly Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for clues about whether the Fed will raise the federal funds rate at its next meeting or leave the rate unchanged, reported Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s. The Fed has been aggressively raising the rate to slow the pace of inflation. Higher rates typically lead to slower economic growth and fewer jobs, so the employment report offers some signals about the Fed’s progress so far and what may come next.
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July 3, 2023
SHOWING REMARKABLE RESILIENCE
Throughout the first half of 2023, the U.S. economy and financial markets proved to be resilient – and so did investors. U.S. stock markets moved higher amid enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and expectations that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle might be near an end. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index entered a bull market and the Nasdaq Composite Index delivered its best first-half performance in 40 years, gaining more than 30 percent over the period, reported Barron’s.
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June
June 26, 2023
The Artificial Intelligence (Ai) Express Is Traveling Fast
Investors are enthusiastic about AI. Late last year, an AI research lab introduced a chatbot that could answer questions – and people were enthralled. Within two months of its introduction, more than 100 million people had engaged with the technology, reported David Curry of Business of Apps. It wasn’t long before AI platforms that could generate images and audio, and help with coding were released
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June 20, 2023
REBALANCING AHEAD!
There is one decision all investors should make: how to allocate the money they’re investing. Asset allocation decisions are usually based on a myriad of factors: expected returns, potential volatility, and appetite for risk, among others.
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June 12, 2023
Leaping Over The Wall Of Worry
The “wall of worry” is an obstacle – or set of obstacles – that investors face. This year, the wall reached a considerable height as inflation, the War in Ukraine, United States-China tensions, slower earnings growth, the high cost of residential real estate, low demand for commercial real estate, tightening credit conditions, and other issues weighed on investor confidence and consumer sentiment.
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June 5, 2023
As Gomer Pyle used to say, “Surprise, surprise, surprise!”
Gomer Pyle USMC was a popular American sitcom in the 1960s. It focused on a naïve, do-gooding auto mechanic from Mayberry RFD who joined the military. Gomer Pyle, the much-loved main character, was known for catchphrases such as shazam, golly, and surprise, surprise, surprise.
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